From Investing in Emerging Markets to Deleveraging Evolving Markets
Steven Chuang
Issue date: 2/24/09 Section: News
In a tumultuous time for investors, it always helps to stop and take a moment to understand what is going on around them.
The Association of Investment Management and Research's 8th annual conference, held on Friday, February 20, provided the perfect opportunity for this reflection. Originally planned to take place in the Kimmel Center, the conference was moved to the Kaufman Management Center at the last moment because of the Take Back NYU protest.
Over 100 current and part-time students, alumni, professors and distinguished guests attended the conference. This year's theme was "Investing in Evolving Markets", and participants were treated to two keynote speeches, as well as panels on emerging markets, credit default swaps, and alternative energy.
After opening remarks by AIMR co-president Cedric Silas and an introduction from Assistant Dean Pamela Mittman, the conference kicked off with a keynote from Barry Gill, head of the North America Fundamental Investment Group at UBS.
Gill presented three views that he was relatively sure would play out in the economy and markets: first, the belief that we are past the worst of things. Second, a secular bear market in United States equities is oncoming. And third, a prolonged and painful deleveraging will take place in the consumer and the system as a whole.
He also made the point that consumer spending has historically led us out of recessions in the past, but this time things could be different because consumers are overleveraged. Gill told participants to focus on the actions of unlevered players, such as the government and emerging markets consumers, when making investment decisions.
Gill's keynote was followed by a panel on investing in emerging markets, moderated by Professor David Backus. Panel participants included Darshan Bhatt from Glovista Investments, Jim Iseman from Smith Barney, Manuel Mejia from Bladex Asset Management, and Lucas Ramirez from Merrill Lynch. Panelists discussed how the rise in commodities prices and the fall in sovereign credit spreads caused a huge bull market in emerging markets stocks, which has now reversed.
The Association of Investment Management and Research's 8th annual conference, held on Friday, February 20, provided the perfect opportunity for this reflection. Originally planned to take place in the Kimmel Center, the conference was moved to the Kaufman Management Center at the last moment because of the Take Back NYU protest.
Over 100 current and part-time students, alumni, professors and distinguished guests attended the conference. This year's theme was "Investing in Evolving Markets", and participants were treated to two keynote speeches, as well as panels on emerging markets, credit default swaps, and alternative energy.
After opening remarks by AIMR co-president Cedric Silas and an introduction from Assistant Dean Pamela Mittman, the conference kicked off with a keynote from Barry Gill, head of the North America Fundamental Investment Group at UBS.
Gill presented three views that he was relatively sure would play out in the economy and markets: first, the belief that we are past the worst of things. Second, a secular bear market in United States equities is oncoming. And third, a prolonged and painful deleveraging will take place in the consumer and the system as a whole.
He also made the point that consumer spending has historically led us out of recessions in the past, but this time things could be different because consumers are overleveraged. Gill told participants to focus on the actions of unlevered players, such as the government and emerging markets consumers, when making investment decisions.
Gill's keynote was followed by a panel on investing in emerging markets, moderated by Professor David Backus. Panel participants included Darshan Bhatt from Glovista Investments, Jim Iseman from Smith Barney, Manuel Mejia from Bladex Asset Management, and Lucas Ramirez from Merrill Lynch. Panelists discussed how the rise in commodities prices and the fall in sovereign credit spreads caused a huge bull market in emerging markets stocks, which has now reversed.
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